Early 2021, the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) published a paper on the electrification of heating and cooling. As a decarbonsation strategy, “the EL60 (32% heating and cooling electrified replacing fossil fuels) scenario seems to be the most ambitious electrification scenario that can be secured by today’s capacities”. However, based on the current capacities, this puts pressure on the grids particular in Austria, Finland and Latvia.
Many power systems can deal with higher heat and power demands from electrification of the sector. Especially heat pump capacity increases in the order of 1.1–1.6 TWth can be deployed. This would correspond to a heat pump share of 29–45% in space heating. 12 Member States could fully electrify without hickups. Three Member States could face some capacity issues, if they substitute 40–60% of fossil fuel technologies. An important enabler is the possibility to react to flexible electric demands.